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Hello,
I am still firmly of the opinion that there is really no place for politics in this forum. However, the truly extraordinary current world situation is so far reaching and existential for all of us, inside and outside America, and it also directly affects our beloved hobby, music and guitar.
I want to say up front that I hold the American people in general and musicians in particular in high esteem, but that I generally feel that the US policies of both major parties are disastrous for the US and for the “rest of the world”.
The current effects are not foreseeable for anyone, as the video of an American musician expresses, who formulates his fears for the domestic guitar industry very carefully, but quite concretely.I think everyone should form their own opinion on this and hope that the AM community will also deal constructively with this controversial topic.
Dieter
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I just run the numbers through the “equation for reciprocal tariffs” to check out the effect of this new trading regime on our household.
I’m going to have to unilaterally impose a 1000% tariff on myself on all US goods coming through our front door.
It turns out America has treated our household very, very badly.
Over the years I’ve bought loads of US gear, but America has bought none of the second hand tat I’ve put up for sale on Reverb and Facebook.
The best it’s managed is a couple of beers and a packet of crisps at the local pub when a mate dropped by on his way home to Boston. Unless the US administration calls soon to cut a deal, even US strings will be out of the question🫣 -
Yes, all this is worth thinking about. I was born in the USA, but have spent half my life now in New Zealand, so I am better qualified than most people to see the Big Picture.
About 25 years ago, the big Asian beer companies swooped in and started buying up all the large breweries in New Zealand. They immediately started cheapening the ingredients and figuring out ways to produce more beer even faster. So we ended up with supermarket shelves full of beer that all tasted the same: Bland, like most American beer.
But what happened is small craft beer companies sprung up all over the country, and their beer is now infinitely better than the large beer companies ever produced, even before they were bought out by foreigners. These beer craftsmen began growing their own hops and even some of the grains. They experimented with all kinds of flavors and brewing methods, and now our craft beers are the best in the southern hemisphere.
If we can no longer get guitars by Fender, Martin, etc, our local luthiers will step in and increase their production of some amazing guitars. In fact, they already make some amazing hand-crafted guitars out of native New Zealand timber.
Sunjamr Steve
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Hello Steve, of course there will be attempts of all kinds at all levels to develop alternatives after the irrational hegemonic collapse of the global economy, to find other sources of supply and sales opportunities. But this will take time and there will be areas that simply cannot be replaced locally. The video mentions pick-ups and other accessories, for example, which are difficult to procure and will certainly become much more expensive. Here in Nuremberg/Germany (500,000 inhabitants), there is unfortunately only one qualified, 70-year-old guitar maker left, who specializes in classical and jazz guitars, and only one high-quality guitar store and, in the wider area, only the Höfner factory, which doesn’t exactly produce at the highest level either. Incidentally, my last guitar purchase was an chinese “Eastman” with a moderate price and excellent quality. Unfortunately, the signs are pointing to a rapid global economic downturn and ultimately to a worldwide war. I find it really hard to be optimistic at the moment.
Dieter
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Ok, a few more serious thoughts 🙂.
There will always be losers whenever there is a change to the rules governing the economy, be that through legislation or world events, like COVID, but there will be new winners too.
The implementation of these tariffs has been so clumsy, chaotic and in such a constant state of flux that the impact is completely unpredictable right now but there will be new opportunities.
So, I don’t fear for the guitar industry in general. According to google, the US accounts for less than 20% of the global guitar market and I’ll wager a good chunk of that is manufactured outside the US.
And let’s face it, guitars are not complicated things to make. Lots of specialist knowledge yes, but technically not difficult to build.I don’t fear for the remainder of the industry either, like pedals etc. There are plenty of other large manufacturers outside the US, Boss in Japan etc and plenty of quality boutique builders.
Will prices change outside the US? Probably a bit depending on reciprocal tariffs and other economic pressures but probably not a lot.
I do fear for the US guitar industry though, for all the reasons Rhett, points out in his video. I think it’s going to be a very different story inside USA and very tough for the smaller suppliers. There could well be a backlash from world wide consumers turning away from US products too.
That said, Fender, Gibson et al will likely weather the storm as they have such strong brands.
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I don’t expect the tariffs to last too long for most nations.
I agree with Deiter that we need to keep politics off of the forum….. (although I enjoy discussing issues if people don’t get bent out of shape over opposing views but that doesn’t happen too often)
….but to understand the tariff issue, one must look at the “Why” of the tariffs. It is the view of the current Admin in Washington DC that the trade picture is greatly in favor of other nations and the American economy could/would be better if things were better balanced.
There are some tariffs that were put into place due to human trafficking and fentanyl & meth being shipped into the USWhat many don’t know, the US is paying high tariffs to certain nations before the most recent tariffs were issued by the US
Without going into the specifics of each nation and various products, it’s being reported that 70 nations are now interested & willing to negotiate with the US in order to get the tariffs removed or reduced
If this is true and trade agreements can be hammered out that is acceptable to both nations, then the tariffs will be short lived.
The issue with China will be the stickler; seems that they aren’t willing to budge. Since that is where much of the musical & electronic equipment is made, things could get interesting.A side issue is the Russian/Ukrainian war and its effect on the price of vacuum tubes. There are 3 main factories in the world that makes tubes. They are located in Russia, Slovakia and China. I read that Electo-Harmonix is building a factory here in the States but I don’t know if that has happened yet. If you’ve bought tubes in the past 4-5 years, you know that they have all but doubled in price due to that war
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